Cirrhosis prevalence is increasing, yet costs associated with its chronic, complex care are poorly understood. The aim was to characterize the costs of care for patients with cirrhosis and compare them to other chronic diseases such as heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), for which the public health burden is better recognized.

Patients enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans from a large national insurer between 2011 and 2020 with cirrhosis, HF, and COPD were identified by ICD-9/-10 codes. Costs (USD) of care were calculated per patient-month and included inpatient medical, emergency medical, pharmacy, and other costs. In all, 93,308 patients with cirrhosis, 355,520 patients with HF, and 318,949 patients with COPD were analyzed. Patients with cirrhosis, HF, and COPD had a mean (SD) age of 69.6 (9.5), 75.9 (9.7), and 72.9 (9.8) years, respectively. The most frequent etiologies were metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (37.7%) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis (22.1%). The total monthly cost of care for patients with cirrhosis, HF, and COPD was $3032.00, $2491.60, and $1955.60 respectively. The cost for patients with cirrhosis exceeded that for HF by $540.40 (21.7% higher) and COPD by $1076.30 (55.0% higher). The monthly cost of care for decompensated cirrhosis was $3969.30, which was 59.3% ($1477.70) higher than for HF and 103.0% ($1,955.60) higher than for COPD.

The cost of care for cirrhosis is high, significantly higher than HF and COPD. Interventions directed at optimizing care to prevent progression to cirrhosis and decompensation are likely to alleviate this public health burden.

Many rural communities bear a disproportionate share of drug-related harms. Innovative harm reduction service models, such as vending machines or kiosks, can expand access to services that reduce drug-related harms. However, few kiosks operate in the USA, and their implementation, impact and cost-effectiveness have not been adequately evaluated in rural settings. This paper describes the Kentucky Outreach Service Kiosk (KyOSK) Study protocol to test the effectiveness, implementation outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a community-tailored, harm reduction kiosk in reducing HIV, hepatitis C and overdose risk in rural Appalachia.

KyOSK is a community-level, controlled quasi-experimental, non-randomised trial. KyOSK involves two cohorts of people who use drugs, one in an intervention county (n=425) and one in a control county (n=325). People who are 18 years or older, are community-dwelling residents in the target counties and have used drugs to get high in the past 6 months are eligible. The trial compares the effectiveness of a fixed-site, staffed syringe service programme (standard of care) with the standard of care supplemented with a kiosk. The kiosk will contain various harm reduction supplies accessible to participants upon valid code entry, allowing dispensing data to be linked to participant survey data. The kiosk will include a call-back feature that allows participants to select needed services and receive linkage-to-care services from a peer recovery coach. The cohorts complete follow-up surveys every 6 months for 36 months (three preceding kiosk implementation and four post-implementation). The study will test the effectiveness of the kiosk on reducing risk behaviours associated with overdose, HIV and hepatitis C, as well as implementation outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

The University of Kentucky Institutional Review Board approved the protocol. Results will be disseminated in academic conferences and peer-reviewed journals, online and print media, and community meetings.

NCT05657106.

The INTRO-HCV randomized controlled trial conducted in Norway over 2017-2019 found that integrated treatment, compared with standard-of-care hospital treatment, for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) improved treatment outcomes among people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of the INTRO-HCV intervention.

A Markov health state transition model of HCV disease progression and treatment with cost-effectiveness analysis from the health-provider perspective. Primary cost, utility, and health outcome data were derived from the trial. Costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) were tracked over 50 years. Probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses investigated DAA price reductions and variations in HCV treatment and disease care cost assumptions, using costs from different countries (Norway, United Kingdom, United States, France, Australia).

PWID attending community-based drug treatment centers for people with opioid dependence in Norway.

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained, compared against a conventional (€70 000/QALY) willingness-to-pay threshold for Norway and lower (€20 000/QALY) threshold common among high-income countries.

Integrated treatment resulted in an ICER of €13 300/QALY gained, with 99% and 71% probability of being cost-effective against conventional and lower willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively. A 30% lower DAA price reduced the ICER to €6 900/QALY gained, with 91% probability of being cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold. A 60% and 90% lower DAA price had 36% and >99% probability of being cost-saving, respectively. Sensitivity analyses suggest integrated treatment was cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold (>60% probability) across different assumptions on HCV treatment and disease care costs with 30% DAA price reduction, and became cost-saving with 60%-90% price reductions.

Integrated hepatitis C virus treatment for people who inject drugs in community settings is likely cost-effective compared with standard-of-care referral pathways in Norway and may be cost-saving in settings with particular characteristics.

Rising incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people with HIV (PWH) in San Diego County (SDC) was reported. In 2018, the University of California San Diego (UCSD) launched a micro-elimination initiative among PWH, and in 2020 SDC launched an initiative to reduce HCV incidence by 80% across 2015-2030. We model the impact of observed treatment scale-up on HCV micro-elimination among PWH in SDC.

A model of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) was calibrated to SDC. The model was additionally stratified by age, gender, and HIV status. The model was calibrated to HCV viremia prevalence among PWH in 2010, 2018, and 2021 (42.1%, 18.5%, and 8.5%, respectively), and HCV seroprevalence among PWID aged 18-39 years, MSM, and MSM with HIV in 2015. We simulate treatment among PWH, weighted by UCSD Owen Clinic (reaching 26% of HCV-infected PWH) and non-UCSD treatment, calibrated to achieve the observed HCV viremia prevalence. We simulated HCV incidence with observed and further treatment scale-up (+/- risk reductions) among PWH.

Observed treatment scale-up from 2018 to 2021 will reduce HCV incidence among PWH in SDC from a mean of 429 infections/year in 2015 to 159 infections/year in 2030. County-wide scale-up to the maximum treatment rate achieved at UCSD Owen Clinic (in 2021) will reduce incidence by 69%, missing the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 unless accompanied by behavioral risk reductions.

As SDC progresses toward HCV micro-elimination among PWH, a comprehensive treatment and risk reduction approach is necessary to reach 2030 targets.

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has a detrimental impact on health-related quality of life (QoL). Scale-up of HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy among people who inject drugs (PWID) is underway in several countries since the introduction of interferon-free regimens. This study aimed to assess the impact of DAA treatment success on QoL for PWID.

Cross-sectional study using two rounds of the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative, a national anonymous bio-behavioural survey and a longitudinal study involving PWID who underwent DAA therapy.

The setting for the cross-sectional study was Scotland (2017-2018, 2019-2020). The setting for the longitudinal study was the Tayside region of Scotland (2019-2021).

In the cross-sectional study PWID were recruited from services providing injecting equipment (n = 4009). In the longitudinal study, participants were PWID on DAA therapy (n = 83).

In the cross-sectional study, the association between QoL (measured using the EQ-5D-5L quality of life instrument) and HCV diagnosis and treatment was assessed using multilevel linear regression. In the longitudinal study, QoL was compared at four timepoints using multilevel regression, from treatment commencement until 12 months following commencement.

In the cross-sectional study, 41% (n = 1618) were ever chronically HCV infected, of whom 78% (n = 1262) were aware of their status and of whom 64% (n = 704) had undergone DAA therapy. There was no evidence for a marked QoL improvement associated with viral clearance among those treated for HCV (B = 0.03; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.09). In the longitudinal study, improved QoL was observed at the sustained virologic response test timepoint (B = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.10-0.27), but this was not maintained at 12 months following start of treatment (B = 0.02; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.10).

Successful direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C infection may not lead to a durable improvement in quality of life among people who inject drugs, although there may be a transient improvement around the time of sustained virologic response. Economic models of the impact of scaling-up treatment may need to include more conservative quality of life benefits over and above reductions in mortality, disease progression and transmission of infection.

Elimination targets for hepatitis C have been set across the world. In the UK almost 90% of infections are in people who inject drugs. Evidence shows community case-finding is effective at identifying and treating undiagnosed patients. The aim of this analysis was to assess, from a healthcare provider perspective, the cost-effectiveness of a new pharmacist-led test and treat pathway for hepatitis C in opioid agonist treatment (OAT) patients attending community pharmacies compared to conventional care.

In a cluster randomised controlled trial, pharmacies were randomised to the pharmacist-led or conventional care pathway. Mean cost per OAT patient and per patient initiating treatment was identified for each pathway. A Markov model tracking disease progression was developed, with a 50-year time horizon and 3·5% time discount rate, to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and the probability of being cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed for a range of drug discounts, re-infection rates, and model assumptions.

Mean cost per OAT patient (£3,674 vs £1,965) and per patient initiating treatment (£863 vs £404) was higher in the pharmacist-led pathway, due to higher uptake of testing and pharmacist time requirements. Over a 50-year time horizon the ICER per QALY gained was £31,612 at NHS indicative price for treatment (£38,979 for 12 weeks) and 12·1/100 person-years re-infection rate, reducing to £21,027/£10,220/-£501 per QALY gained with 30%/60%/90% drug price discounts and £25,373/£21,738/£14,912 per QALY gained at re-infection rates of 8/5/2 per 100 person-years. At 30%/60%/90% drug discount rates, the pharmacist-led pathway has an 80%/98%/100% probability of being cost-effective.

The pharmacist-led pathway is effective at increasing testing and treatment uptake, with cost-effectiveness being highly dependent on drug price discounts.

Trial funding provided by the Scottish Government, Gilead Sciences, and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has a worldwide incidence of 1.1%. In Italy, 60% of people who inject drugs (PWIDs) and are receiving assistance for substance use disorder are infected with HCV. However, this subset of patients has extremely limited access to care due to multiple factors, including alcohol abuse, psychological comorbidities, and homeless status.

To describe the impact of our HCV-dedicated service for substance use disorder (SSUD) service on PWIDs receiving anti-HCV therapy.

A dedicated, multidisciplinary team was set up at the SSUD of Trento in October 2020 to provide antiviral treatment to HCV RiboNucleic Acid-positive patients with an active or previous history of substance abuse. The treatment was followed by a health education program. Patients were treated with Direct-Acting Antivirals (DAAs). Data were retrospectively analyzed to assess the efficacy of our dedicated program in terms of therapy completion, HCV eradication, and compliance (primary endpoint). The rate of HCV reinfection and DAA-related toxicity were also assessed (secondary endpoints).

A total of 40 patients were enrolled in the study: 28 (70.0%) were treated with Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir, while 12 (30.0%) received Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir. At the time of inclusion in the study, 36 patients were receiving opioid agonist maintenance therapy, whilst another 4 had just finished the treatment. 37.5% had a history of alcoholism and 42.5% received concomitant psychiatric treatment. All 40 patients (100.0%) completed the therapy cycle and 92.5% of patients adhered to the program. All patients tested negative for viral load at the end of the treatment. There were no significant drug interactions with common psychiatric treatments and no side effects were observed. The sustained virological response was achieved in 92.5% of cases with good tolerability, although two patients discontinued treatment temporarily. After HCV eradication, one patient died from an overdose, another from complications of cirrhosis, and one reinfection occurred.

Very high adherence to therapy and good tolerability was observed in our series of HCV patients treated at the SSUD, regardless of the substance abuse condition. Further validation in a larger population is required.

By subsidising access to direct acting antivirals (DAAs) for all people living with hepatitis C (HCV) in 2016, Australia is positioned to eliminate HCV as a public health threat. However, uptake of DAAs has declined over recent years and new initiatives are needed to engage people living with HCV in care. Active follow-up of HCV notifications by the health department to the notifying general practitioner (GP) may increase treatment uptake. In this study, we explore the impact of using hepatitis C notifications systems to engage diagnosing GPs and improve patient access to treatment.

This study is a randomised controlled trial comparing enhanced case management of HCV notifications with standard of care. The intervention includes phone calls from a department of health (DoH) specialist HCV nurse to notifying GPs and offering HCV management support. The level of support requested by the GP was graded in complexity: level 1: HCV information only; level 2: follow-up testing advice; level 3: prescription support including linkage to specialist clinicians and level 4: direct patient contact. The study population includes all GPs in Tasmania who notified HCV diagnosis to the DoH between September 2020 and December 2021. The primary outcome is proportion of HCV cases who initiate DAAs after 12 weeks of HCV notification to the health department. Secondary outcomes are proportion of HCV notifications that complete HCV RNA testing, treatment workup and treatment completion. Multiple logistic regression modelling will explore factors associated with the primary and secondary outcomes. The sample size required to detect a significant difference for the primary outcome is 85 GPs in each arm with a two-sided alpha of 0.05% and 80% power.

The study was approved by University of Tasmania's Human Research Ethics Committee (Protocol ID: 18418) on 17 December 2019. Results of the project will be presented in scientific meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals.

NCT04510246.

The study commenced recruitment in September 2020 and end of study expected December 2021.

Recent advances in hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostic testing methods allow for a one-stop simplified 'test and cure' approach. The cost effectiveness of incorporating this simplified approach into HCV screening in Iraq remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the cost effectiveness of different HCV testing and diagnostic approaches, and screening strategies in Iraq from a health service perspective.

A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using a hybrid model comprising a screening decision tree linked to a lifetime Markov model to estimate outcomes in HCV-infected people. Cost and utility estimates were sourced from the published literature and expert guidance provided by clinicians and policy makers in Iraq. Cost estimates were reported in 2019 USD or 2019 Iraqi Dinar and both costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually.

Strategies using a simplified approach were found to be cost saving in addition to improving patient outcomes when compared with a standard testing and diagnostic approach. When considering risk-based screening, a simplified approach was associated with a total cost saving of Iraqi Dinar 4375 billion (USD 3.7 billion) and per patient life-year and quality-adjusted life-year gains of 0.30 and 0.55, compared with a standard approach. Benefits and cost savings were driven by a 32.2% and 23.6% reduction in the incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Estimated benefits and cost savings increased under total population screening. All screening and testing and diagnostic approaches were cost effective compared with a no screening scenario.

Improvements in the detection of HCV combined with a simplified one-stop testing and diagnostic approach represents an opportunity to reduce the burden of HCV in Iraq and may play a significant role in meeting World Health Organisation HCV elimination targets.

In Latin America, Mexico was first to launch a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategy, where people who inject drugs (PWID) are a main risk group for transmission. In Tijuana, HCV seroprevalence among PWID is > 90%, with minimal harm reduction (HR). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve the incidence elimination target among PWID in Tijuana.

Modeling study using a dynamic, cost-effectiveness model of HCV transmission and progression among active and former PWID in Tijuana, to assess the cost-effectiveness of incidence elimination strategies from a health-care provider perspective. The model incorporated PWID transitions between HR stages (no HR, only opioid agonist therapy, only high coverage needle-syringe programs, both). Four strategies that could achieve the incidence target (80% reduction by 2030) were compared with the status quo (no intervention). The strategies incorporated the number of direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) treatments required with: (1) no HR scale-up, (2) HR scale-up from 2019 to 20% coverage among PWID, (3) HR to 40% coverage and (4) HR to 50% coverage. Costs (2019 US$) and health outcomes [disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)] were discounted 3% per year. Mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, $/DALY averted) were compared with one-time per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ($9698 in 2019) and purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP ($4842-13 557) willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

DAAs alone were the least costly elimination strategy [$173 million, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 126-238 million], but accrued fewer health benefits compared with strategies with HR. DAAs + 50% HR coverage among PWID averted the most DALYs but cost $265 million, 95% CI = 210-335 million). The optimal strategy was DAAs + 50% HR (ICER $6743/DALY averted compared to DAAs only) under the one-time per-capita GDP WTP ($9698).

A combination of high-coverage harm reduction and hepatitis C virus treatment is the optimal cost-effective strategy to achieve the HCV incidence elimination goal in Mexico.

In efforts to control disease, mathematical models and numerical targets play a key role. We take the elimination of a viral infection as a case for exploring mathematical models as 'evidence-making interventions'. Using interviews with mathematical modellers and implementation scientists, and focusing on the emergence of models of 'treatment-as-prevention' in hepatitis C control, we trace how projections detach from their calculative origins as social and policy practices. Drawing on the work of Michel Callon and others, we show that modelled projections of viral elimination circulate as 'qualculations', taking flight via their affects, including as anticipation. Modelled numerical targets do not need 'actual numbers' or precise measurements to perform their authority as evidence of viral elimination or as situated matters-of-concern. Modellers grapple with the ways that their models transform in policy and social practices, apparently beyond reasonable calculus. We highlight how practices of 'holding-on' to projections in relation to imaginaries of 'evidence-based' science entangle with the 'letting-go' of models beyond calculus. We conclude that the 'virtual precision' of models affords them fluid evidence-making potential. We imagine a different mode of modelling science in health, one more attuned to treating projections as qualculative, affective and relational, as excitable matter.

Background and objective: Although the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has significantly evolved with the introduction of direct-acting antivirals, the treatment uptake rates have been low especially among marginalized groups in the UK, such as people who inject drug (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM). Cutting health inequality is a major focus of healthcare agencies. This study aims to identify the optimal allocation of treatment budget for chronic hepatitis CHC among populations and treatments in the UK so that liver-related mortality in patients with CHC is minimized, given the constraint of treatment budget and equity issue. Methods: A constrained optimization modelling of resource allocation for the treatment of CHC was developed in Excel from the perspective of the UK National Health System over a lifetime horizon. The model was designated with the objective function of minimizing liver-related deaths by varying the decision variables, representing the number of patients receiving each treatment (elbasvir-grazoprevir, ombitasvir-paritaprevir-ritonavir-dasabuvir, sofosbuvir-ledipasvir, and pegylated interferon-ribavirin) in each population (the general population, PWID, and MSM). Two main constraints were formulated including treatment budget and the issue of equity. The model was populated with UK local data applying linear programming and underwent internal and external validation. Scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of model results. Results: Within the constraints of no additional funding over original spending in status quo and the consideration of the issue of equity among populations, the optimal allocation from the constrained optimization modelling (treating 13,122 PWID, 160 MSM, and 904 general patients with ombitasvir-paritaprevir-ritonavir-dasabuvir) was found to treat 2,430 more patients (relative change: 20.7%) and avert 78 liver-related deaths (relative change: 0.3%) compared with the current allocation. The number of patients receiving treatment increased 4,928 (relative change: 60.1%) among PWID and 42 (relative change: 35.8%) among MSM. Conclusion: The current allocation of treatment budget for CHC is not optimal in the UK. More patients would be treated, and more liver-related deaths would be avoided using a new allocation from a constrained optimization modelling without incurring additional spending and considering the issue of equity.

Treatment uptake for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in people who inject drugs (PWID) and patients on opioid substitution therapy (OST) is still low despite treatment guidelines that advocate the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in all patients. Our aim in this review was to investigate treatment outcomes among PWID and patients on OST in comparison to control cohorts.

A search of Embase, Medline, PubMed, and Web of Science (from October 2010 to March 2018) was conducted to assess sustained virologic response (SVR), discontinuation rates, adherence, and HCV reinfection in PWID and patients on OST.

We identified 11 primary articles and 12 conference abstracts comprising 1702 patients on OST, 538 PWID, and 19 723 patients who served as controls. Among patients on OST, the pooled SVR was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87% to 93%) and pooled treatment discontinuation rate was 7% (95% CI, 4% to 11%). Similarly, the pooled SVR was 88% (95% CI, 80% to 93%) in PWID and the pooled treatment discontinuation rate was 9% (95% CI, 5% to 15%). There was no significant difference regarding pooled rates of SVR, adherence, and discontinuation between patients on OST and controls as well as between PWID and controls. HCV reinfection rates among patients on OST ranged from 0.0 to 12.5 per 100 person-years.

HCV treatment outcomes in PWID and patients on OST are similar to those in patients without a history of injecting drugs, supporting current guideline recommendations to treat HCV in these patient populations.

The causal impact method (CIM) was recently introduced for evaluation of binary interventions using observational time-series data. The CIM is appealing for practical use as it can adjust for temporal trends and account for the potential of unobserved confounding. However, the method was initially developed for applications involving large datasets and hence its potential in small epidemiological studies is still unclear. Further, the effects that measurement error can have on the performance of the CIM have not been studied yet. The objective of this work is to investigate both of these open problems.

Motivated by an existing dataset of HCV surveillance in the UK, we perform simulation experiments to investigate the effect of several characteristics of the data on the performance of the CIM. Further, we quantify the effects of measurement error on the performance of the CIM and extend the method to deal with this problem.

We identify multiple characteristics of the data that affect the ability of the CIM to detect an intervention effect including the length of time-series, the variability of the outcome and the degree of correlation between the outcome of the treated unit and the outcomes of controls. We show that measurement error can introduce biases in the estimated intervention effects and heavily reduce the power of the CIM. Using an extended CIM, some of these adverse effects can be mitigated.

The CIM can provide satisfactory power in public health interventions. The method may provide misleading results in the presence of measurement error.

In Vietnam, people who inject drugs (PWID), who are the major population infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV), remain largely undiagnosed and unlinked to HCV prevention and care despite recommended universal hepatitis C treatment. The data on the outcomes of HCV treatment among PWID also remain limited in resource-limited settings. The DRug use & Infections in ViEtnam-hepatitis C (DRIVE-C) study examines the effectiveness of a model of hepatitis C screening and integrated care targeting PWID that largely uses community-based organisations (CBO) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. In a wider perspective, this model may have the potential to eliminate HCV among PWID in this city.

The model of care comprises large community-based mass screening, simplified treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and major involvement of CBO for PWID reaching out, linkage to care, treatment adherence and prevention of reinfection. The effectiveness of DAA care strategy among PWID, the potential obstacles to widespread implementation and its impact at population level will be assessed. A cost-effectiveness analysis is planned to further inform policy-makers. The enrolment target is 1050 PWID, recruited from the DRIVE study in Hai Phong. After initiation of pan-genotypic treatment consisting of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir administrated for 12 weeks, with ribavirin added in cases of cirrhosis, participants are followed-up for 48 weeks. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with sustained virological response at week 48, that will be compared with a theoretical expected rate of 70%.

The study was approved by Haiphong University of Medicine and Pharmacy's Ethics Review Board and the Vietnamese Ministry of Health. The sponsor and the investigators are committed to conducting this study in accordance with ethics principles contained in the World Medical Association's Declaration of Helsinki (Ethical Principles for Medical Research Involving Human Subjects). Informed consent is obtained before study enrolment. The data are anonymised and stored in a secure database. The study is ongoing. Results will be presented at international conferences and submitted to international peer-review journals.

NCT03537196.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of chronic liver disease, with approximately 71 million chronically infected individuals worldwide. Clinical care for patients with HCV-related liver disease has advanced considerably thanks to an enhanced understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease, as well as developments in diagnostic procedures and improvements in therapy and prevention. These therapies make it possible to eliminate hepatitis C as a major public health threat, as per the World Health Organization target, although the timeline and feasibility vary from region to region. These European Association for the Study of the Liver recommendations on treatment of hepatitis C describe the optimal management of patients with recently acquired and chronic HCV infections in 2020 and onwards.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a global public health threat, and novel models of care are required to treat those currently or previously at highest risk of infection, particularly persons who inject drugs (PWID; ever injected), as conventional healthcare models do not have the reach to deliver cure of HCV to disadvantaged, disproportionately affected communities. In Western Europe and Australasia, it is estimated that HCV affects between 0.4% and 1.0% of the regions' populations, accordingly, it affects between 0.4% and 0.7% of the populations of countries in this study (Scotland, Wales and Australia). Reaching mEthadone users Attending Community pHarmacies with HCV (REACH HCV) will evaluate community pharmacy-based diagnostic outreach and HCV treatment against conventional HCV testing and treatment pathways for clients receiving opioid substitution therapy (OST) in community pharmacies.

REACH HCV is an international multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial with sites in Scotland, Wales and Australia. The sites are community pharmacies which are randomised equally to one of two pathways: the pharmacy intervention pathway or the education-only (control) pathway. Participants are recruited from OST clients in these pharmacies.In the pharmacy intervention pathway, participants receive a rapid point-of-care HCV PCR test in their pharmacy by a study outreach nurse. If positive, direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are delivered to participants via their pharmacist in line with their OST schedule.In the education-only pathway, pharmacists counsel OST clients on HCV and refer them to the nearest nurse-led clinic or general practitioner offering HCV testing according to standard care protocols. If positive, DAAs are delivered as in the intervention pathway.The primary endpoint for both pathways is sustained viral response at 12 weeks post-treatment . Secondary outcomes are: cost-efficacy by pathway; participants tested by pathway; adherence to therapy by pathway and impact of blood test results on treatment decisions.A statistical analysis plan will be finalised prior to data lock. Analysis will be by intention to treat (ITT) to show superiority. Modified ITT analysis will also be undertaken to explore the steps in the pathways.

The trial received ethical favourable opinion from the East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 2 (19/ES/0025) for UK sites and approval from the Alfred Hospital Ethics Committee (148/19) for Australian sites and complies with principles of Good Clinical Practice. Final results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at relevant conferences.

ClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT03935906.

V.4.0-19 March 2020.

In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), yet they are often under-diagnosed. The World Health Organization has set 2030 as a target year for HCV elimination. To meet this target, improving screening in convenient community settings in order to reach infected undiagnosed individuals is a priority. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of alternative novel strategies for diagnosing HCV infection in PWID.

A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to compare HCV screening at needle exchange centres, substance misuse services and at community pharmacies, with the standard practice of detection during general practitioners' consultations. A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental cost per positive diagnosis, and a Markov model explored the net monetary benefit (NMB) and the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime horizon.

Needle exchange services provided a 7.45-fold increase in detecting positive individuals and an incremental cost of £12,336 per QALY gained against current practice (NMB £163,827), making this the most cost-effective strategy over a lifetime horizon. Screening at substance misuse services and pharmacies was cost-effective only at a £30,000/QALY threshold. With a 24% discount to HCV treatment list prices, all three screening strategies become cost-effective at £20,000/QALY.

Targeting PWID populations with screening at needle exchange services is a highly cost-effective strategy for reaching undiagnosed HCV patients. When applying realistic discounts to list prices of drug treatments, all three strategies were highly cost-effective from a UK NHS perspective. All of these strategies have the potential to make a cost-effective contribution to the eradication of HCV by 2030.

The field of public health is replete with mathematical models and numerical targets. In the case of disease eliminations, modelled projections and targets play a key role in evidencing elimination futures and in shaping actions in relation to these. Drawing on ideas within science and technology studies, we take hepatitis C elimination as a case for reflecting on how to think with mathematical models and numerical targets as 'performative actors' in evidence-making. We focus specifically on the emergence of 'treatment-as-prevention' as a means to trace the social and material effects that models and targets make, including beyond science. We also focus on how enumerations are made locally in their methods and events of production. We trace the work that models and targets do in relation to three analytical themes: governing; affecting; and enacting. This allows us to situate models and targets as technologies of governance in the constitution of health, which affect and are affected by their material relations, including in relation to matters-of-concern which extend beyond calculus. By emphasising models and targets as enactments, we draw attention to how these devices give life to new enumerated entities, which detach from their calculative origins and take flight in new ways. We make this analysis for two reasons: first, as a call to bring the social and enumeration sciences closer together to speculate on how we might think with models and targets differently and more carefully; and second, to encourage an approach to science which treats evidencing-making interventions, such as models and targets, as performative and political.

Traditional detachable syringes used by people who inject drugs (PWID) retain larger volumes of blood when the plunger is depressed than syringes with fixed needles-referred to as high (HDSS) and low dead space syringes (LDSS), respectively. Evidence suggests that using HDSS may result in greater hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk than LDSS. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention to introduce detachable LDSS in a needle and syringe programme (NSP).

HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Detachable LDSS are associated with increased costs (£0.008) per syringe, yearly staff training costs (£536) and an estimated decreased risk (by 47.5%) of HCV transmission compared with HDSS. The intervention was modelled for 10 years, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years: QALYs) tracked over 50 years.

Bristol, UK.

PWID attending NSP.

Gradual replacement of HDSS at NSP, with 8, 58 and 95% of HDSS being replaced by detachable LDSS in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. Comparator was continuing use of HDSS.

Net monetary benefit. Benefits were measured in QALYs.

Introducing detachable LDSS was associated with a small increase in intervention costs (£21 717) compared with not introducing detachable LDSS, but considerable savings in HCV-related treatment and care costs (£4 138 118). Overall cost savings were £4 116 401 over 50 years and QALY gains were 1000, with an estimated 30% reduction in new infections over the 10-year intervention period. In all sensitivity analyses, detachable LDSS resulted in cost savings and additional QALYs. Threshold analyses suggested that detachable LDSS would need to reduce HCV transmission risk of HDSS by 0.26% to be cost-saving and 0.04% to be cost-effective.

Replacing high dead space syringes with detachable low dead space syringes in needle and syringe programmes in the United Kingdom is likely to be a cost-saving approach for reducing hepatitis C virus transmission.

To evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care that aims to increase uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) case finding and treatment.

Pragmatic, two armed, practice level, cluster randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation.

45 general practices in South West England (22 randomised to intervention and 23 to control arm). Outcome data were collected from all intervention practices and 21/23 control practices. Total number of flagged patients was 24 473 (about 5% of practice list).

Electronic algorithm and flag on practice systems identifying patients with HCV risk markers (such as history of opioid dependence or HCV tests with no evidence of referral to hepatology), staff educational training in HCV, and practice posters/leaflets to increase patients' awareness. Flagged patients were invited by letter for an HCV test (with one follow-up) and had on-screen pop-ups to encourage opportunistic testing. The intervention lasted one year, with practices recruited April to December 2016.

Primary outcome: uptake of HCV testing.

number of positive HCV tests and yield (proportion HCV positive); HCV treatment assessment at hepatology; cost effectiveness.

Baseline HCV testing of flagged patients (six months before study start) was 608/13 097 (4.6%) in intervention practices and 380/11 376 (3.3%) in control practices. During the study 2071 (16%) of flagged patients in the intervention practices and 1163 (10%) in control practices were tested for HCV: overall intervention effect as an adjusted rate ratio of 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.08; P<0.001). HCV antibodies were detected in 129 patients from intervention practices and 51 patients from control practices (adjusted rate ratio 2.24, 1.47 to 3.42) with weak evidence of an increase in yield (6.2% v 4.4%; adjusted risk ratio 1.40, 0.99 to 1.95). Referral and assessment increased in intervention practices compared with control practices (adjusted rate ratio 5.78, 1.6 to 21.6) with a risk difference of 1.3 per 1000 and a "number needed to help" of one extra HCV diagnosis, referral, and assessment per 792 (95% confidence interval 558 to 1883) patients flagged. The average cost of HCV case finding was £4.03 (95% confidence interval £2.27 to £5.80) per at risk patient and £3165 per additional patient assessed at hepatology. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was £6212 per quality adjusted life year (QALY), with 92.5% probability of being below £20 000 per QALY.

HepCATT had a modest impact but is a low cost intervention that merits optimisation and implementation as part of an NHS strategy to increase HCV testing and treatment.

ISRCTN61788850.

There have been calls to integrate HCV testing into existing services, including harm reduction and HIV prevention and treatment, but there are few empirical trials to date. We evaluated the impact of integrating HCV testing/education into integrated care centers (ICCs) delivering HIV services to people who inject drugs (PWID) across India, using a cluster-randomized trial.

We compared ICCs with usual care in the PWID stratum (12 sites) of a 22-site cluster-randomized trial. In 6 sites, ICCs delivering HIV testing, harm reduction, other preventive services and linkage to HIV treatment were scaled from opioid agonist therapy centers and operated for 2 years. On-site rapid HCV antibody testing was integrated after 1 year. To assess impact, we conducted baseline and evaluation surveys using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) across the 12 sites (n = 11,993 recruited at baseline; n = 11,721 recruited at evaluation). The primary outcome was population-level self-reported HCV testing history.

At evaluation, HCV antibody prevalence ranged from 7.2-76.6%. Across 6 ICCs, 5,263 ICC clients underwent HCV testing, of whom 2,278 were newly diagnosed. At evaluation, PWID in ICC clusters were 4-fold more likely to report being tested for HCV than in usual care clusters, adjusting for baseline testing (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 3.69; 95% CI 1.34-10.2). PWID in ICC clusters were also 7-fold more likely to be aware of their HCV status (aPR 7.11; 95% CI 1.14-44.3) and significantly more likely to initiate treatment (aPR 9.86; 95% CI 1.52-63.8).

We provide among the first empirical data supporting the integration of HCV testing into HIV/harm reduction services. To achieve elimination targets, programs will need to scale-up such venues to deliver comprehensive HCV services. CLINICALTRIALS.

NCT01686750.

Delivering hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing to people who inject drugs (PWID) in places where they also have access to HIV prevention and treatment services is an effective way to improve uptake of HCV testing among communities of PWID. To achieve the World Health Organization's ambitious elimination targets, integrated programs will need to be scaled up to deliver comprehensive HCV services.

New antiviral drugs with high efficacy mean the hepatitis C virus (HCV) can now be eliminated. To achieve this, it is necessary to identify undiagnosed cases of HCV. However, the costs of testing should be considered when judging the overall cost-effectiveness of treatment. This study describes the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacy testing service in a population of people at risk of HCV living on the Isle of Wight (United Kingdom). Dry blood spot testing was conducted in anyone with a known risk factor for HCV in 20 community pharmacies. The outcomes and costs were entered into a Markov model. Cost and health utilities from the model were used to calculate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In 24 months, 186 tests were conducted, 13 were positive for HCV RNA and six of these (46%) received treatment during the follow-up period. All achieved a sustained virological response at 3 months. The overall cost of the testing and treatment intervention was £242 183, and the ICER for the service was £3689 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. If screening had been restricted to just people with a history of injecting drug use (PWID) the ICER would have been £4865 per QALY gained. The service was effective at identifying people with HCV infection, and despite the additional cost of targeted testing, its cost-effectiveness was below the commonly accepted thresholds. In this setting, restricting targeted testing to PWID would not improve the cost-effectiveness.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently produced guidelines advising a treat-all policy for HCV to encourage widespread treatment scale-up for achieving HCV elimination. We modelled the prevention impact achieved (HCV infections averted [IA]) from initiating this policy compared with treating different subgroups at country, regional and global levels. We assessed what country-level factors affect impact. A dynamic, deterministic HCV transmission model was calibrated to data from global systematic reviews and UN data sets to simulate country-level HCV epidemics with ongoing levels of treatment. For each country, the model projected the prevention impact (in HCV IA per treatment undertaken) of initiating four treatment strategies; either selected randomly (treat-all) or targeted among people who inject drugs (PWID), people aged ≥35, or those with cirrhosis. The IA was assessed over 20 years. Linear regression was used to identify associations between IA per treatment and demographic factors. Eighty-eight countries (85% of the global population) were modelled. Globally, the model estimated 0.35 (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.16-0.61) IA over 20 years for every randomly allocated treatment, 0.30 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.53) from treating those aged ≥35 and 0.28 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.49) for those with cirrhosis. Globally, treating PWID achieved 1.27 (95%CrI: 0.68-2.04) IA per treatment. The IA per randomly allocated treatment was positively associated with a country's population growth rate and negatively associated with higher HCV prevalence among PWID. In conclusion, appreciable prevention benefits could be achieved from WHO's treat-all strategy, although greater benefits per treatment can be achieved through targeting PWID. Higher impact will be achieved in countries with high population growth.

To examine the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment of people who inject drugs (PWID), combined with medication-assisted treatment (MAT) and syringe-service programs (SSP), to tackle the increasing HCV epidemic in the United States.

HCV transmission and disease progression models with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective.

Rural Perry County, KY (PC) and urban San Francisco, CA (SF), USA. Compared with PC, SF has a greater proportion of PWID with access to MAT or SSP. HCV treatment of PWID is negligible in both settings.

PWID data were collected between 1998 and 2015 from Social Networks Among Appalachian People, U Find Out, Urban Health Study and National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System studies.

Three intervention scenarios modeled: baseline-existing SSP and MAT coverage with HCV screening and treatment with direct-acting antiviral for ex-injectors only as per standard of care; intervention 1-scale-up of SSP and MAT without changes to treatment; and intervention 2-scale-up as intervention 1 combined with HCV screening and treatment for current PWID.

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and uncertainty using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Benefits were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

For both settings, intervention 2 is preferred to intervention 1 and the appropriate comparator for intervention 2 is the baseline scenario. Relative to baseline, for PC intervention 2 averts 1852 more HCV infections, increases QALYS by 3095, costs $21.6 million more and has an ICER of $6975/QALY. For SF, intervention 2 averts 36 473 more HCV infections, increases QALYs by 7893, costs $872 million more and has an ICER of $11 044/QALY. The cost-effectiveness of intervention 2 was robust to several sensitivity analysis.

Hepatitis C screening and treatment for people who inject drugs, combined with medication-assisted treatment and syringe-service programs, is a cost-effective strategy for reducing hepatitis C burden in the United States.

In 2016, the World Health Organization issued global elimination targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV), including an 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030. The vast majority of new HCV infections occur among people who inject drugs (PWID), and as such elimination strategies require particular focus on this population. As governments urgently require guidance on how to achieve elimination among PWID, mathematical modeling can provide critical information on the level and targeting of intervention are required. In this paper we review the epidemic modeling literature on HCV transmission and prevention among PWID, highlight main differences in mathematical formulation, and discuss key insights provided by these models in terms of achieving WHO elimination targets among PWID. Overall, the vast majority of modeling studies utilized a deterministic compartmental susceptible-infected-susceptible structure, with select studies utilizing individual-based network transmission models. In general, these studies found that harm reduction alone is unlikely to achieve elimination targets among PWID. However, modeling indicates elimination is achievable in a wide variety of epidemic settings with harm reduction scale-up combined with modest levels of HCV treatment for PWID. Unfortunately, current levels of testing and treatment are generally insufficient to achieve elimination in most settings, and require further scale-up. Additionally, network-based treatment strategies as well as prison-based treatment and harm reduction provision could provide important additional population benefits. Overall, epidemic modeling has and continues to play a critical role in informing HCV elimination strategies worldwide.

Birth cohort screening for the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been implemented in the US, but there is little evidence of its cost-effectiveness in England. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of one-time HCV screening for individuals born between 1950 and 1979 as part of the National Health Service health check in England, a health check for adults aged 40 to 74 years in primary care.

A Markov model was developed to analyze add-on HCV testing to the National Health Service health check for individuals in birth cohorts between 1950 and 1979, versus current background HCV testing only, over a lifetime horizon. The model used data from a back-calculation model of the burden of HCV in England, sentinel surveillance of HCV testing, and published literature. Results are presented from a health service perspective in pounds in 2017, as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life years gained.

The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £7648 to £24 434, and £18 681 to £46 024, across birth cohorts when considering 2 sources of HCV transition probabilities. The intervention is most likely to be cost-effective for those born in the 1970s, and potentially cost-effective for those born from 1955 to 1969. The model results were most sensitive to the source of HCV transition probabilities, the probability of referral and receiving treatment, and the HCV prevalence among testers. The maximum value of future research across all birth cohorts was £11.3 million at £20 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained.

Birth cohort screening is likely to be cost-effective for younger birth cohorts, although considerable uncertainty exists for other birth cohorts. Further studies are warranted to reduce uncertainty in cost-effectiveness and consider the acceptability of the intervention.

Since little is currently known about predictors of response to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in people who inject drugs, we undertook an analysis of patients attending a hepatitis clinic with addiction services (outpatient clinics and inpatient services) to examine the outcomes associated with the treatment of difficult-to-manage patients with substance use. Our experience was based on integrated care.

A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 50 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and a history of addiction who received treatment with DAAs, according to European guidelines. These regimens were sofosbuvir/ledipasvir for 8 weeks (n = 3), sofosbuvir/ledipasvir ± ribavirin for 12 weeks (n = 19), sofosbuvir/daclatasvir for 12 weeks (n = 20), sofosbuvir/simeprevir (n = 1), or sofosbuvir/daclatasvir for 24 weeks (n = 7). Characteristics of patients who did versus did not achieve a sustained virologic response (SVR) 12 weeks after treatment were compared by univariate analysis.

Forty-two patients (84%) were male; mean age was 46.2 ± 7.3 years. Genotypes were 1 (n = 21), 2 (n = 4), 3 (n = 18), 4 (n = 6), or 6 (n = 1). Most patients were treatment-naïve (n = 38). Five patients had coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (n = 4) or hepatitis B (n = 1), 28 (56%) had evidence of cirrhosis on FibroScan (>12.5 kPa), and 34 (68%) were receiving opioid substitution therapy. Psychiatric disease, illicit drug use, unemployment, and homelessness/precarious housing were common. Forty-five patients (90%) achieved SVR, 2 were lost to follow-up, and 3 had treatment relapse.

SVR was not significantly associated with sociodemographic or virological characteristics, treatment, social environment, alcohol/drug use, and adherence. Although adherence was slightly worse than in "usual" patients, it did not affect the SVR rate. In these difficult-to-manage patients with HCV and substance use disorder, the real-world SVR rate (90%) was similar to that in nonaddicted populations.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV 'Treatment as Prevention' (TasP) in PWID.

We plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome - chronic HCV prevalence in PWID - is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a 'virtual cohort' of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes.

Extending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C, ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.