Discernment scheme for paraquat poisoning: A five-year experience in Shiraz, Iran

Table 1 Baseline demographics of the subjects, 2010-2015

Variable	Total = 104
Gender
Male (%)	69 (66.3)
Female (%)	35 (33.7)
Duration of hospitalization
1-6 d (%)	61 (58.7)
7-13 d (%)	29 (27.9)
More than 14 d (%)	14 (13.5)
Mean (d)	6.73 ± 5.73
Time interval (d)	1-27
Cause of poisoning
Occupational exposure (%)	4 (3.8)
Suicidal (%)	97 (93.3)
Accidental (%)	3 (2.9)
Habitat
Rural (%)	80 (76.9)
Urban (%)	24 (23.1)
Type of poisoning
Ingestion (%)	101 (97.1)
Injection (%)	3 (2.9)
Outcome
Recovery (%)	59 (56.7)
Death due to complications (%)	45 (43.3)

Table 2 Chest radiographic findings of the 45 survivors and non-survivors among paraquat poisoned patients

Radiographic findings	Time interval of radiographic study (d)	No. of patients (percent in the survivors/non-survivors groups)
Non-survivors (n = 18)
Pneumothorax (%)	2-5	2 (11.1)
Pneumomediastinum/emphysema (%)	1-2	2 (11.1)
ARDS (%)	1-10	4 (22.2)
Lung fibrosis (%)	4-14	10 (55.6)
Survivors (n = 27)
Pneumothorax (%)	1-5	2 (7.4)
Lung fibrosis (%)	4-32	4 (14.8)
Normal (%)	1-8	21 (77.8)

ARDS: Acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Table 3 The cutoff point for the amount of poison consumption and patients’ death

Variable	Area under the ROC (the minimum positive predictive value of 90%)	Cutoff point	Positive predictive value	Negative predictive value	Sensitivity	Specificity
Amount of consumed poison	0.945 (0.87-1.0)	22.5	93.3	98.3	93.3	98.3

ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.

Table 4 Cutoff point for the levels of serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, aspartate aminotransferase and alanine transaminase on the third day in relation with patients’ death considering the minimum positive predictive value of 90%

Laboratory variables in the third day of admission	Area under the ROC (the minimum positive predictive value of 90%)	Cutoff point	Positive predictive value	Negative predictive value	Sensitivity	Specificity
Serum creatinine	0.90 (0.83-0.97)	1.95	90.9	70.8	90.9	70.8
BUN	0.80 (0.69-0.91)	25	95.4	66.7	95.5	66.7
AST	0.85 (0.58-1.000)	24.5	100	66.78	100	72.7
ALT	0.79 (0.57-1.000)	12	93.3	10.34	88.9	9.1

BUN: Blood urea nitrogen; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; ALT: Alanine transaminase; ROC: Receiver operating characteristic.